By Laura Weiss, Andrew Desiderio, John Bresnahan, Punchbowl News
The deadline to extend Obamacare premium subsidies is just three weeks away. And Congress is nowhere on this issue.
There’s been no real push from party leaders on either side to secure a deal, leaving moderates and vulnerable Republicans scrambling.
As the chances for a deal hover near zero, the fingerpointing has only intensified ahead of “show” votes in the Senate next week. Senate Republican leaders are dealing with an absent White House while they struggle to coalesce around a messaging bill to counter Democrats’ unity on a subsidy extension.
“Obviously, there are consultations going on all the time with the White House. But I think at this point the question is, are the Democrats serious about actually solving the issue?” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune.
Democrats have a dramatically different view of the case, however.
“We want a clean extension. By the way, we can take it from there on our side,” said Rep. Richie Neal (Mass.), the ranking Democrat on the House Ways and Means Committee. “Right now, the argument certainly leans in our direction.”
In reality, it’s Republicans who have the most to lose politically. More than four million Americans could lose coverage, with millions more facing huge premium hikes. And this will hit small businesses too.
House Republican leaders say that Democrats should be to blame because they voted against the GOP reconciliation package, which, at one time, included cost-sharing reductions. This later fell out of the bill in the Senate.
Republican dysfunction. Many House and Senate Republicans don’t want to do anything about the looming Obamacare cliff, saying the program is rife with fraud and abuse. They blame Democrats for not extending the premiums permanently during the Biden administration.
House Republican leaders seem nowhere close to an agreement on a broader health care package, although Speaker Mike Johnson promises a plan is coming soon. He’s just not sure when, even as the Dec. 31 deadline looms larger.
In the Senate, Republicans are trying to figure out whether to even offer their own alternative to a planned vote next week on Democrats’ bid to extend the subsidies for three years.
Senate Republicans lack consensus on any bill. And since these will be partisan exercises anyway, many GOP senators don’t see the point of voting on something that’ll only divide their party.
The GOP resistance to doing anything about the Obamacare cliff puts Democratic leaders in a corner somewhat. It doesn’t make political sense for Democrats to offer concessions if they don’t think Republicans or President Donald Trump can actually pass anything.
This plays directly into their 2026 argument that Republicans – who control all of Washington – can’t or won’t govern effectively, especially on affordability issues.
There’s also a feeling among key Democrats that changes to the program for 2026 are unworkable at this point. Democrats say there needs to be a clean Obamacare credit extension for next year because time is so short. That’s a dealbreaker for most Republicans.
Yet that bare-knuckled approach by Democrats also doesn’t do anything for the millions of Americans about to be hit with a big price hike.
House mods’ options. Moderates in both parties are desperate for a deal. But even they can’t agree on the path forward.
Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) and Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) are leading a bipartisan House group unveiling a new framework this morning.
It’s expected to call for a one-year extension of the enhanced premium tax credits with several changes, including to crack down on fraud. It also includes a second year of aid for premiums with larger-scale reforms. Plus, they outline pay-for options as well.
House members have met with several senators about their pitch, including Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), Susan Collins (R-Maine), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), according to a source familiar with the efforts.
Meanwhile, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) is on the verge of dropping his own compromise bill for a two-year credit extension meant to reflect White House, Senate and House feedback.
House Republican centrists, in particular, feel pressure to show they’re fighting for something after Democrats’ overwhelming momentum in recent elections.
The problems for dealmakers. First of all, things have already gone sideways in the Senate, which was ACA credit backers’ best hope for momentum.
As of this moment, there isn’t a proposal that can get 60 votes. Without Trump’s help, that’s not achievable. Next week’s votes, which Thune promised as part of the shutdown-ending deal, won’t accomplish much more than political posturing.
To counteract Democrats, some Republicans are discussing a vote that would pair Sen. Rick Scott’s (R-Fla.) bill on health savings accounts with a clean, year-long extension of the Obamacare subsidies. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) also has a bill allowing people to deduct medical expenses from their taxes. But there’s no clear path for either of these.
“There are those of us who want to do something and recognize we cannot allow premiums to skyrocket,” Hawley said. “I’m open to any proposals.”
The last-ditch option for House moderates is a discharge petition. A compromise effort would likely need most — if not all — House Democrats on board. But their backing isn’t guaranteed, especially if House Republicans can’t show some real buy-in on their side.
Republican moderates are betting Democrats would take progress over perfection. But a lack of time, trust and consensus are huge problems.
“Eighty percent of something or 100% of nothing is going to be their choice, right?” Fitzpatrick said. “I would sure hope that they would not want the whole program to go away over differences over provisions.”
Two more things:
–House Republicans shelved their effort to pass the SCORE Act, landmark legislation regulating college sports. The bill was supposed to be on the floor Wednesday. House GOP leadership said they may take it up Thursday, but they have now put it off indefinitely.
– Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) will be our guest on Fly Out Day today. Subscribe to our YouTube channel.
