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Leading US politicians have said discussions need to start on a united Ireland to avoid a “Brexit-style debacle” in the aftermath of a rushed border poll.

Prominent members of Congress suggested the US will be on hand to provide a mediatory role to guide the process through in the same way the Good Friday Agreement was achieved over 25 years ago.

Congressman Richie Neal, who played a pre-eminent role in sealing the Agreement and ensuring its principles have been upheld, told The Sunday Times that given recent political shifts, the conversation of a border poll is entirely appropriate.

Neal, co-chair of the congressional Friends of Ireland caucus, said he senses a refreshed optimism towards the north following the Ireland Funds Gala in Washington DC last Wednesday night where Michelle O’Neill, First Minister of Northern Ireland and Emma Little-Pengley, Deputy First Minister, took to the stage to deliver a joint speech announcing clearly, Northern Ireland was open for business.

“I think there have been notable political changes,” Neal said. “That tone last evening in Washington as the First and Deputy First Minister spoke was revealing. There was great enthusiasm in the room, they received a standing ovation when they opened and then when they closed and I think that the endurance of the Good Friday Agreement was highlighted, again, in terms of its success.

“The Good Friday Agreement includes the principle of consent; the idea that there could be a border poll as determined by popular opinion, and the Secretary of State would have that power to call a referendum question.

“My own sense is that there’s a bit of a ways to go here on it but I do think that there’s a discussion happening within political parties. I think that there has to be a series of baked-in assurances — there would need to be no threat to any identities. I think that there would have to be some compromises again, along the way. But I think given the democratic nature of the Republic and Northern Ireland, that the idea of a conversation is entirely appropriate.”

Congressman Brendan Boyle, a close associate of US President Joe Biden, also said: “Firstly, it would only happen entirely by the consent of people on the island. What I think is important at this moment is proper planning and preparation. I think the whole Brexit debacle is a great example of what not to do. In the case of Brexit the people had the election first and then figured out afterwards what exactly the consequences were.

“I think what’s really important right now is for people in Dublin and Belfast but also in Washington, DC, and London and Brussels, to talk about and work through all the possible scenarios, the ramifications, how best to prepare, and that’s very important and takes real effort. So I think it’s important that all of us start focusing on that now, to be prepared. For when that time would come.”

Joe Kennedy III, US Special Envoy to Northern Ireland since 2022, told The Sunday Times he wouldn’t put a timeline on when a border poll might happen: “That’s a decision for the people of Northern Ireland and the people of the Republic.”

Both Kennedy and Boyle met with Mary Lou McDonald, Sinn Fein leader, and Jeffrey Donaldson, Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) leader, last Wednesday in Washington to discuss future US investment in Northern Ireland, which was described as an “optimistic, forward looking, inclusive conversation” by the US leaders in attendance.

Although it’s still felt that a major roadblock for US investment in the north remains the segregation between its communities, creating a volatile base for investors seeking stable partners.

However, Kennedy told The Sunday Times: “Northern Ireland has an extraordinary opportunity. The First Minister and Deputy First Minister have set an extraordinary tone over the course of the last six weeks, they deserve an awful lot of credit for it. A lot of folks did a lot of work to bring those institutions back, they deserve a lot of credit.

“The combination of the political stability, the Windsor framework that provides real tangible benefits for trade for Northern Ireland, a talented workforce – they’ve got a lot of things going for them and part of this week is to help celebrate that and recognise it.”

On the future of his own role as Special Envoy to the north, he said: “I’ll continue to serve at the pleasure of the President”.

Co-Chair of the Friends of Ireland caucus, Mike Kelly also told The Sunday Times that conversations around a border poll should happen earlier rather than later. Kelly said: “The people of Ireland are the ones to decide that, we’re not the ones to give advice on this.

“I’m sure the people of Ireland are looking at us thinking ‘Why can’t they just get along’, things here are very divisive but open discussions around these kinds of issues are needed and the US will always have these ties to Ireland and we’ll want to support it for what lies ahead.”

Leo Varadkar, the taoiseach, was clear last week that he didn’t think now was the time for demanding a border poll or setting a date for one.

He argued that there was clearly a considerable number of people in the north against reunification given the last assembly elections: “I think calling for one and pressing for it actually makes it harder for the institutions under the Good Friday Agreement to work, I think what’s needed now is a time for betting down, allowing the executive assembly to do its job.”

In response, Mary Lou McDonald, Sinn Fein leader said: “Now is the time to prepare and now is the time to actually give democratic space to this conversation that’s happening all across the United States.

“It’s happening in Ireland. Change is coming and my concern is that we’re really well prepared for it. So it’s not about proving a point with the government or establishing who’s right or who’s wrong. We all live in Ireland. We want the best for our country so let’s plan for it.”

In terms of the future of US investment in Ireland, there was general confidence that Ireland’s commitment to the OECD BEPS corporate tax rate of 15% will not impact the Republic which has experienced heavy windfalls to the exchequer from US tech giants attracted to Ireland by its lower tax rate of 12.5%.

The general consensus among congressional leaders was that the key benefits to Ireland remain in its skilled workforce, a business friendly regulation regime and its connections to the EU. The cultural connections between the two nations is also seen as key to maintaining the strength of the economic relationship.

Michael Lohan, CEO of IDA Ireland the agency responsible for the attraction and retention of inward foreign direct investment, also said: “I don’t expect the changes to adversely impact Ireland’s existing or future FDI base. Ireland remains committed to the agreed introduction of a global minimum corporate tax rate of 15%.

“While corporate tax rates are important, talent availability is the priority consideration for US companies deciding to locate in Ireland and has been the bedrock of Ireland’s success in attracting FDI. Ireland is also a proven innovation and R&D hub. This innovation ecosystem is a major pull for US MNCs who are embarking on the transformation journey towards digitalisation and sustainability.”